No current Saker Message. First, in an article entitled Remembering the Important Lessons of the Cold War I tried to explain that the reason the Cold War did not turn into a hot, shooting, war is that both sides understood that they simply could never win and that any escalation in strikes and counter-strikes could very rapidly lead to a intercontinental nuclear war, something which neither side was willing to risk.
First, in an article entitled Remembering the Important Lessons of the Cold War I tried to explain that the reason the Cold War did not turn into a hot, shooting, war is that both sides understood that they simply could never win and that any escalation in strikes and counter-strikes could very rapidly lead to a intercontinental nuclear war, something which neither side was willing to risk.
A few days later I posted an article entitled Why the US-Russian Nuclear Balance is as Solid as Ever in which I tried to dispel the myth prevalent in the West about the putative state of disrepair of the Russian military in general, and of the Russian nuclear forces in particular.
In summary, I will say this: After that, it was all downhill. This is not the fault of the US solider, by the way, but by the fact that big money and politics got so heavily involved in the US military that they corrupted everything. This is most evident in the USAF which still has superb pilots, but who are given a terrible choice: They even look bad on a parade.
And yet, something in all this very logical reasoning felt wrong to me. A few days ago it finally hit me. What bothered me was The American Duck Among the many beautiful and witty expressions and neologisms Americans use, I always loved this one: If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.
But kept hearing the voice of the American Duck telling me: Suspend your conclusions and just tell me what are you observing?
Tell me, if they had decided to escalate to the point of a military confrontation with Russia, would they be doing things differently? And a few days ago, I threw in the towel at the duck, of course and had to accept that while I did not know what they were thinking or what their intentions really were, it sure looked to me like the western plutocrats had decided to escalate the crisis has high as possible.
To put it simply — how do you deter a lunatic? Or a desperate man with nothing to lose? Or a person hell-bent on mutual destruction? The truth is, you cannot. Deterrence assumes a rational actor making a logical decision about unacceptable costs. As far as I know, nobody has ever developed a theory of deterrence applicable to a madman.
At the time I replied that, yeah, sure, maybe, but what is the point of analyzing something crazy. How do you try to make sense of the suicidally insane? And yet, this is what I propose to do today.
I will try as best I can to try to place myself in the mind of these lunatics and see what they could try doing, and what the consequences of that would be.
I will go through several possible plans that these crazies might have starting from the most limited one and then going up the insanity slope.
Then there are all the reports of foreign mercenaries, mostly US and Polish, fighting with the Ukie death squads. There is also some good evidence that Poland is sending military equipment, including aircraft and, possibly, crews.
Well, all of that is dumb and serves very little useful purpose, but that is what the West is so good at: If this plans stays at this level I would say that it is not very important.
But, alas, there is a nastier possibility here: Just imagine what a heavy-mortar strike on a building with these OSCE observers would look like. This force would also assume the command and control of Ukie forces, something which the Ukies could greatly benefit from their current command and control is a mess.INTRODUCTION: The world situation interfered heavily with the races.
Early in the season Mussolini refused Italian drivers to race in French events because of the involvement in the Spanish civil war and deteriorating relations between the two nations.
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Introduction I have been putting off writing about this topic for a very long while. In fact, I wrote several articles trying to explain the self-evident truism that the US/NATO/EU does not have a military option in the Ukrainian war.