I fight back with facts — and think for myself instead.
Analysis and Production Dissemination Therefore, to prevent intelligence failures each and every step needs an expert approach.
However, Heuer explained that expertise itself is no protection from the common analytic pitfalls that are endemic to the human thought process. Intelligence failures are possible also because terrorist often use denials and deceptions.
New terrorists are trained as well and possess good intelligence capabilities. They may deliberately send signals which hide their true intentions to mislead intelligence analysts. Johnson and Wirtz stated that in the best- known cases of intelligence failure, the most crucial mistakes have seldom been made by the collectors of raw information, occasionally by intelligence analysts who produce finished analyses and most often by the decision makers who use the intelligence products.
Shortcomings in intelligence analysis and estimates Intelligence failures may be the cause of shortcomings in intelligence analysis and estimates. Intelligence processes should be very professional and include diligent and precise intelligence gathering systems.
There have been many occasions where such shortcomings have led to intelligence failures and terrorists have eventually succeeded in their mission. Collection capabilities search internet Intelligence will fail if the intelligence community does not have the ability to collect timely and relevant information about terrorists.
Intelligence fails when there is a failure to collect relevant information due to the mis-prioritization of collection systems. Intelligence community has to deal with loads of information in this information age. This has given the US Intelligence community a headache. Other intelligence communities are surely experiencing the same problem given the restrictive budgets they are allocated with; for this reason most of the intelligence communities around the world are still using a hodgepodge of aging and incompatible electronic data systems to deal with an ever expanding stream of data.
Johnson and Wirtz, This is definitely a barrier in creating successful intelligence as there will be a restriction in the collection of information and some valuable information is missed.
Another issue of concern during the collection stage which contributes to intelligence failures is the existence of organizational or classification barriers to the free flow and sharing of information.
Marrin argued that these barriers impede the free flow of information, thereby preventing intelligence analysts from integrating all the relevant information, as occurred at Pearl Harbor inand apparently prior to the 11 September attacks. Consequently, to strengthen contemporary intelligence, the experts of the intelligence community have to fully understand the science of analysis.
This is based mostly based on the human mental processing power- human mind—and the way it processes information. The mental processing power is guided by beliefs, assumptions and existing concepts. Information from the memory forms a mind-set.
This mind set may prove to be dangerous when analyzing information as the mental process will be guided by perception.
However, these mental obstacles on the human mental process can be minimised if not eliminated. Training may help in this area. Training will definitely help human mind on how to identify and overcome these mental obstructions. In this context, the intelligence community has to design related procedures that will facilitate and guide the mental processing of information.
Intention estimation Intention estimation is a very important factor in the intelligence process. However, wrong estimations may lead to failures. In fact intention estimation may depend on situational factors.
For example intention estimation of other nations may be very difficult during wartime and hostilities. The reason is quite simple. During war time, there are all sorts of control on information leakage. Its security and secrecy plans are given much priority. There are also all sorts of physical barriers like closed borders, censorship and restriction placed on media, and execution of strict rules and regulations within departments.
All these prevent the flow of information and intention estimation become very difficult. He added that the Tet Offensive, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the weapons of mass destruction WMD fiasco in Iraq would soon be added to the list of widely recognized at least by decisionmakers intelligence failures.
Over Reliance on Signals Intelligence Signals intelligence SIGINT which came into wide use in the mids by the intelligence community has proved its significant value in the collection of information against terrorism.
This has also been pointed out by Johnson and Wirtz who said that SIGINT has been very useful in collecting information about things like location of tanks or some telephone conversations, but SIGINT was unable to provide any insight into a particular cell was planning.
This is the job of a person. Treachery There are many reasons why intelligence may fail. Political Collins and Reed discussed that intelligence failures can be politically driven as well.The actions are not state sponsored.
The perpetrators are not (only) the poorest and most marginalized. Some of this terrorism is homegrown. And there is zero space for negotiating with the jihadists.
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[Note: The most recent updates to these first six sections were posted on Sunday, January. Abstract. Gathering intelligence involves people and needs lots of control and, as such, there is always the possibility of failure. This paper explores all possible reasons as to why Intelligence fails and how such failures may fail to defeat terrorism.